Three members of the cabinet would have lost their seats to Reform UK if a general election had been held on Thursday, according to new analysis. The same report also suggests that two other senior Labour MPs would have been unseated by the Green Party.
The analysis, commissioned by Reform UK and seen by the New Statesman, shows that Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Chief Whip Jonathan Reynolds would all have lost their constituencies to Reform. It also suggests that David Lammy, the Deputy Prime Minister, and Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader, would have lost their seats to the Greens.
The findings were produced by comparing each constituency’s results from the 2024 general election with outcomes from the 2026 local elections. A Reform source said the data shows the party is “sharpening its knives” by identifying cabinet members who “are toast” at the next general election, adding: “We’re setting our targets, and our eyes are on the cabinet.”
In Lisa Nandy’s Wigan constituency, for example, Reform won all the seats contested on Thursday (only a third of Wigan Council seats were up for grabs). Labour’s vote share reportedly fell from 47.4 per cent in 2024 to 25.2 per cent in 2026 – a drop of 22.2 percentage points.
Similarly, in David Lammy’s Tottenham constituency – where the Green Party made significant gains, including taking control of the council from Labour – Labour’s vote share fell by 18.3 points, from 57.5 per cent in 2024 to 31.4 per cent in 2026.
Reform has been using opposition to the Prime Minister as a central message during the local elections. A slogan unveiled by leader Nigel Farage on 10 April read: “Vote Reform. Get Starmer out.” The party is expected to continue this approach.
Commenting on the analysis, a Reform source said: “Starmer is our most potent weapon. He’s totally toxic in the north and Midlands. These ministers are toast already, but we’ll be reminding their constituents about their role in propping the Prime Minister up nonetheless.”
A Labour source pushed back, arguing that Reform is not “on the side of working people” and that both Reform and the Greens have the “wrong answers for Britain.” They added: “As the Prime Minister has said, it’s important that we learn, do better and deliver for voters. That means doubling down on supporting families with the cost of living, investing in their communities, and improving their public services.”
While the findings are based on modelling rather than an actual general election result, they nevertheless point to significant challenges for Labour in key constituencies. At the moment, Labour is mulling over the question of party leadership. Reform, meanwhile, is planning its attack.
[Further reading: Labour faces civil war to replace Starmer]
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